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    • Finally Fig presents Lorenz curves for the

    2018-10-30

    Finally, Fig. 4 presents Lorenz curves for the municipal income per capita distribution for the same Censuses years as before. In per capita terms, the highest levels of spatial concentration takes place in 1872 which practically dominates the curves for all the other years. Conversely, the lowest levels of spatial concentration takes place in 2000 which is practically dominated by the curves for all the other years. The spatial dispersion of income per capita was far from monotonic, however. The curves display a strong dispersion of the spatial distribution of income per capita in the periods 1872–1919, when the economy was driven by coffee and rubber exports, and in 1970–2000, with the emergence of the agricultural frontier in the Cerrado areas of the Center-West region. In contrast, there is a strong concentration process form 1919 to 1970, during the heydays of the urbanization and import substitution industrialization process. It should be kept mind, however, that growth rates of the economy were significantly higher during this later period.
    Secular patterns of convergence of labor productivity and income per capita in Brazil, 1872–2000 The basic specification of the convergence model is thus:where, y=(Y/Pop) is GDP per capita (or GDP per labor force) in municipality i, Census year t; Y is GDP per capita in municipality i, Census year t; Pop is Anti-cancer Compound Library (or labor force) in municipality i, Census year t; β is a estimated coefficient that measures the speed of convergence of income per capita (or labor productivity) of municipalities. Estimations for 1872 to 2000 were made for the main regions, as well for the sub-periods 1872–1919, 1919–1949, 1949–1980 e 1980–2000 for Brazil as whole. The results of OLS (Ordinary Least Square) estimations are available in (Reis, 2014). Figs. 5 and 6 present the estimates of β, the speed of municipal convergence for income per capita (GDP/Population) and labor productivity (GDP/Labor force) in Brazil for the whole period, 1872–2000, and selected sub-periods. The caped lines show the two standard deviation confidence interval of the estimates of β, and the figures in parenthesis in the horizontal axis show the number of observation for each estimation period. For the 1872–2000 period, corrected R2 in the equations for income per capita and labor productivity were equal to 0.43 and 0.15, respectively. Thus, 43% of the variance of the growth of income per capita in Brazilian municipalities from 1872 to 2000 is explained solely by the level of income per capita in 1872, a quite good adjustment. Labor productivity growth has a much larger share of unexplained variance. The estimated speeds of convergence, β, is −0.005 for income per capita, and −0.003 for labor productivity, both highly significant. In the former, the value of estimates say that municipalities with 1% more in the level of income per capital in 1872 had 0.005 less in their annual average growth rates in the period 1872–2000. The smallest speed of convergence for productivity growth indicates that the growth of income per capita was to some extent reinforced by changes in the dependency ratios – the ratio population/labor force – during the same period. Thus, one may speculate that the poorest municipalities had higher dependency ratios in the initial period and had larger relative decreases in the dependency ratio during the period of analysis. Compared to other countries, the convergence of municipal income per capita in Brazil was quite slow. Indeed, estimates of β are close to −0.02, both in the case of personal income in the US states in the period 1950–80 and of income per capita of Japanese municipalities in the period 1955–87 (Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1995). Equivalent estimates for income per capita of Italian municipalities are −0.025 for the period 1951–70, and −0.003 for the period 1970–2000 (Arbbia et al. (Felice, 2013)). The magnitude of those estimates are significantly higher than those estimate for Brazil in the periods 1950–80 or 1980–2000.